Philippines 2026: Rising dairy demand and growing cheese imports
What does the Philippines dairy sector look like in 2026? We have some insights into demand, production, consumption and imports. Let’s take a look at what the year ahead will bring.
Based on forecasts by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), demand for dairy products in the Philippines will rise by 1.5% to 3.5 million metric tonnes (mt) in liquid milk equivalent in 2026. According to a latest dairy and products annual GAIN report, domestic production cannot meet demand and so the Philippines imports most of its dairy requirement, which currently stands at 99%. In the next year, there is expected to be a small growth in skim milk imports at 1% to 175,000 mt, while fluid milk imports remain flat at 130,000 mt.
Cheese imports will continue to increase, anticipated at 9% despite high prices due to increasing demand from pizza chains, restaurants and hotels.
Ample opportunities for manufacturers
As noted, the country only produces 1% of its demand for dairy products, which leads the country to import 99% of its requirements. Its annual per capita consumption of 27 kg is below consumption in the United States, which is at 295 kgs per capita. This low number shows that there are ample opportunities for food manufacturers to offer more dairy products in the Philippines.
Average milk production in the country is 10 litres per day for dairy cows, 4.5 litres per day for buffalo, and 1.5 litres per day for goats. The United States and New Zealand remain the major suppliers of dairy products to the Philippines.
Forecast for 2026
The reports adds that FAS Manila forecasts consumption to reach 3.5 million mt in liquid milk equivalent in 2026, which represents growth of 1.5% from 2025, with the vast majority coming from imports. Growth is the result of an expanding middle class and a growing population. The population in the Philippines is estimated at 121.9 million in 2026, an increase of 1.5% annually.
Dairy product forecasts
- Fluid milk or ready-to-drink milk. Production to increase to 37,000 mt in 2026, boosted by an increase in the dairy herd and the active implementation of the government’s dairy development projects.
- Cheese. While local production remains minimal, there is an increase in demand for cheese despite higher prices to supply fast-food, pizza chains, hotels and restaurants, which are the drivers of demand for cheese. A 9% increase is forecasted in imports in 2026 due to a rise in local demand among hotels, food chains and restaurants.
- Skim milk powder. Consumption is expected to increase to 175,000 mt in 2026, up by 1% from 2025. A growth of 2% in skim milk powder imports is also expected as consumption continues to ascend.
- Whole milk powder. Here, consumption is expected to remain flat in 2026 at 20,000 mt, coming from a rebound in 2025. Imports to remain flat in 2026 at 20,000 mt in consideration of the expected double-digit growth of 18% in 2025.
Milk production
A 3% increase in production to 37,000 mt in 2026 compared to 2025 is anticipated, urged on by an increase in the dairy herd and the government’s dairy development projects.
Other milk sources such as water buffalo and goat milk production will continue to increase but contribution will remain minimal, especially goat milk production. Cow milk production represents more than 50% share of total production.
Overall dairy imports will see growth of 1.5% in 2026 as demand surges.
Source and more info: GAIN report
