Ukraine’s dairy sector: From raw milk shortages to a shrinking herd
Ukraine’s dairy sector faces growing risk as the national herd continues to shrink, raising fears of a raw milk shortage by the end of 2026, according to Olena Zhupinas, deputy director general of the Milk Producers Association, local outlet Focus reported.
In the first 2 months of 2026 alone, the number of cows on industrial farms fell by 2,100, a decline that shows no sign of slowing. As supply tightens, dairy prices are expected to rise by 15-25% in the coming months, depending on the product category, Zhupinas said.
Producers are increasingly facing a difficult choice over whether to sustain operations amid mounting cost pressures.
“Dairy farmers are at a crossroads: sowing costs are rising, which means feed costs for the 2026 harvest will be 20-30% higher than in the previous season,” Zhupinas noted. At the same time, she added, cow maintenance costs are increasing, and farms must undergo reconstruction by 2028 to comply with European integration requirements.
She also noted that purchase prices for raw milk have been declining for 6 consecutive months, leaving production unprofitable for at least 4 months.
Export pressure builds
A potential supply shortfall could emerge as early as the third quarter of 2026. However, Zhupinas emphasised that domestic availability is unlikely to be affected in the near term. “Currently, up to 30% of Ukraine’s raw milk is processed into export-oriented products, compared with 10-15% before the war,” she said. “If production declines, export volumes will fall, but the domestic market should remain sufficiently supplied.”
Ukraine primarily exports dairy products to the neighbouring EU countries. In 2025, Ukraine’s dairy exports reached US$400 million, jumping by more than a third compared with the previous year, according to official data.
Farmers weigh exit options
Sustained losses are prompting some farmers to consider exiting the sector altogether. The Milk Producers Association estimated that raw milk output could decline by 15-20% by the end of the year, unless some positive changes happen.
At the same time, domestic producers are under growing pressure from imports, particularly from the European Union. Imported goods now account for roughly half of dairy products on Ukrainian supermarket shelves.
“Milk production and dairy exports in EU countries are subsidised,” Zhupinas said. “This has contributed to lower purchase prices in Ukraine and made production increasingly unprofitable.”
